Berrys' Future of Wine - Volume Wine

In the world of volume wine, Berrys believes there are two specific areas set for significant change by 2058:

• Countries renowned for 'New World Wine' will alter radically as the effects of climate change are felt
• The rise of wine 'brands' will lead to massive changes in the way wine is produced, packaged and marketed

1. The New New World - Going Up

In 1958, few people would have predicted the USA, Argentina or Chile would be capable of producing good wine. Now, nearly every other bottle of wine is made outside of Europe's Big 5 (1) wine producing regions and these countries lead the New World Wine rankings.

So, who will head the table in 2058?

Grape wall of China

Already the world's sixth largest wine producer and number four in terms of area under vine, China, Berrys predicts, will be the world's leading producer of volume wine by 2058.

Berrys believes Cabernets and Chardonnays of real promise will be made. With the right soil, low labour costs and soaring domestic demand, China is set to take the world of wine by storm. "China has the vineyards, but not the technical expertise," agrees Alun Griffiths MW, "however, if good people from wine producing countries think there is opportunity to make wine in China, they will go there and invest."

The changing climate

If global warming persists, there could be a radical shake-up of the wine world with many non-traditional wine producing countries given the chance to become real contenders.

Countries which are currently small-scale producers may become more significant. Much of Eastern Europe sits on the same latitude as some of France's top wine producing regions, so countries like Ukraine, Moldova, Croatia, Slovenia and Poland could feature more prominently, especially when they attract investment.

Berrys also believes Canada could experience a similar uplift. While most of the country is currently too cold for wine production, Southern Ontario and Southern British Columbia are already home to several large areas of vines. Currently sitting at no.32 in terms of output(2), Canada, Berrys predicts, could start to rival its American neighbour by 2058.

Disastrous droughts for Australia

In the past year or two, Australia has suffered from severe droughts with water shortages so acute that irrigation of vineyards has been temporarily banned.

Droughts devastated the 2008 crop, with spot prices of bulk Australian wine rising from AUS$0.40 in 2006 to over AUS$1 a litre in 2007. If this trend continues, supplies of inexpensive Australian wine may soon be a thing of the past.

By 2058, Berrys predicts Australia will be too hot and arid to support large areas of vine. It will no longer be renowned for volume wine and will become, instead, a niche producer, concentrating on hand-crafted, terroir-driven, fine wine.

David Berry Green commented: "Production will probably be marginalised into wetter, cooler areas such as Tasmania and there will be more focus on high quality, boutique wines."

2. Big Brand Booze

In 2006 Foster's, the biggest all-Australian wine company, started sourcing wine for their popular Lindemans brand from South Africa and Chile.

The Berrys' experts commented: "By 2058, big brand wine could be grape or blend specific, rather than from a particular country. Grapes will be gathered from all over the world and blended to suit consumers' tastes."

Berrys experts believe the rise of 'Big Brand Booze' could be accelerated by investment from spirits companies and supermarkets who, by 2058, will own most of the world's wine brands. A willingness to invest in new wine producing areas could ignite interest in many of the 'New New World' vineyards already discussed in this report.

Increasingly, consumers may recognise wine brands (and the flavours associated with them) in the same way they do spirit brands such as Smirnoff. Rather than ordering a glass of Australian Shiraz, Marlborough Sauvignon Blanc or Californian Merlot, it could be commonplace to ask for a 'Lindemans Light', 'Waitrose White' or 'Rosemount Red'.

Jasper Morris MW predicts: "In 50 years, consumers will ask for wine by the brand name or flavour and won't know, or care, where it has come from. Grapes will be genetically modified to change a wine's taste and producers will add artificial flavourings to create a style wanted by consumers."

Floating Vines

Satisfying this growing consumer demand will necessitate wholesale changes in production methods. By 2058, Berrys predicts vast industrial vineyards could house genetically-modified grape varieties resistant to disease, and genetically altered yeast will improve fermentation and help produce wines with lower alcohol levels.

An increased focus on low calorie lifestyles could entice many producers to create 'tailor-made' wines and reduce calorific and alcohol content by modifying the grapes' genetic structure.

Since vineyards typically take up huge areas of land, Berrys believes genetically modified vines could be grown hydroponically in off-shore floating vineyards.

Lightening the load

In 50 years' time, Berrys believes wine is unlikely to be sold in glass bottles. Using glass will be unrealistic as retailers and importers try to cut costs, waste, and reduce the environmental impact of wine being shipped around the globe.

The average weight of a wine bottle is 500g (3), but there have been recent moves to produce more lightweight bottles.

Berrys believes the cost and environmental impact of shipping pre-bottled wine around the world means, in the future, we're likely to see 'wine tankers' crossing our oceans. Bulk shipments of wine could arrive, before being put into plastic or reinforced cardboard containers in a bid to reduce environmental emissions and create a domestic bottling industry.

This phenomenon is being closely observed by companies like Tetrapak, who have already developed cardboard bottles for the French, Swedish and Italian markets.

"I see a far greater range of packaging on the shelves in 2058. Cartons will be the obvious choice for much of the wine and will dominate the shelves for the mass market. Variety will be greater - we're already seeing 500 ml and 1 litre options. Cartons will mean far more tailoring to consumption and branding opportunities for big brands." Ian Williamson, Tetra Pak UK